The next decade of venture returns will be won in the middle

Five principles for technology investing

By Baktash Parsa, Chief Executive Officer, Ariana Capital Global Ltd · October 2026

For the past decade, venture capital has often been a story of extremes. Some investors chased the most visible trends, paying high prices for companies with exciting stories and little revenue. Others stayed away from frontier technology altogether, waiting for a certainty that never comes.

I believe the best results of the next decade will come from the middle: from disciplined investors who back real technology, at sensible prices, with a clear view of how and when capital comes back. These five principles guide how I think about technology investing.

1. Back what is usable now

The most exciting breakthroughs often take the longest to pay off. Between the laboratory and the mass market sits a large group of companies that make new technology work for ordinary businesses today, from quantum sensing and security to AI infrastructure with paying customers. These companies earn revenue earlier and carry less technical risk.

2. Pair long horizons with earlier exits

Deep technologies such as quantum computing may take ten years or more to reach their full potential. Faster-maturing businesses, especially in applied AI, can return capital much sooner. A portfolio that combines both offers patience where it is needed and liquidity where it is possible.

3. Price discipline beats hype

The price you pay matters as much as the technology you back. When a sector becomes fashionable, valuations can run far ahead of what companies can deliver. Experienced investors stay patient, walk away from overpriced rounds, and look for strong companies that others have overlooked.

4. Keep capital for the winners

In venture capital, a small number of companies usually create most of the value. Investors who keep a meaningful reserve for follow-on rounds can increase their support for the companies that prove themselves, rather than watching from the sidelines.

5. Protect investors first

Lasting trust is built on structure: diversification across companies and stages, independent administration and audit, transparent reporting and clear governance. These protections do not remove risk, but they mean investors always know where their capital is and how it is used.

Venture capital is not about predicting the future perfectly. It is about building portfolios that benefit from it, while protecting capital along the way.

Follow Baktash Parsa on LinkedIn for more insights.

This article reflects the author’s personal views and is for information only. It is not investment advice or an offer of any investment.